Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Positive Evidence and the "Maybe Fallacy"

"The Maybe Fallacy"

Often people conjecture: "Well, maybe your statement isn't so", or "Perhaps some objection can be made".  The standard response is: "Yes, maybe the position is wrong, and perhaps there are alternatives, but until there is positive evidence, that the position is to be re-assessed in light of the new positive evidence, there is no reason to reject it on the grounds of a 'maybe position'.

Maybe green aliens created the universe through a giant aerosol can, and perhaps transcendental, pan-galactic beings invaded the earth 45 billion years ago, and implanted a biological device that makes us think that the universe is 15 billion years old.  However, this is all conjecture, and extremely far-fetched to show that the fallacy is one that requires substantiation and cannot be the basis for a solid objection.

The premise for the "Maybe Fallacy" objection is that proof requires 100% certainty, and anything less is not to be taken as being believable.  This premise is incorrect, no theory, position or proof has 100% certainty, in fact, we cannot even prove to absolute certainty that your parents are in fact your parents, even with DNA records indicating that, since there is a small (not insignificant) chance that they are not your parents.  We can therefore safely conjecture that if on a sliding scale, knowing our parents and agreeing that they are indeed our parents on the basis of high level of certainty, allows us to be objectively real, when it comes to all elements of proof and certainty.

In this respect then, the "Maybe Fallacy" falls flat, because it assumes that proof requires 100% certainty, and since that is an impossibility on axioms known to be true, we can therefore argue that the premise is indeed wrong.

If however you wish to argue and say that the maybe fallacy doesn't have such a premise, it is still fallacious since it simply argues that a 'maybe' position weakens a position already thus established as reasonable, and likely given the evidence suggested.  In this circumstance, to argue that it may not be so, requires positive evidence against the statement.  The Maybe Fallacy fails to procure such evidence and can be shown to be pure sophistry.